International Conference of Sociocybernetics “TECHNOLOGY AND SOCIAL
SIMULATION OF THE DUALITY NORTH-SOUTH IN SOCIAL EVOLUTION
Dpt.Applied Mathematics, Universitat de València,
C/Dr.Moliner 50, 46100 Burjassot, Spain
prior works, we developed a mathematical model about the duality
East-West in Social Evolution. Thus, we introduced a feature of
western individualism so that the evolution arrived to "collectivist"
social systems in the “East”, to a "capitalist" social
system in the “West”, and could further carry to an ecologic
holocaust, to capitalism forever or to a free scientific society.
order to introduce the duality North-South which also occurs in the
real history of the humanity, we work now in a bidimensional space
with a cylindrical topology, and make the relief between generations
faster in the “South” and the learning of “young” subsystems
faster in the “West”.
We need to re-calibrated the
parameters in order to get an accurate simulation of the real social
evolution of humanity until the present time, with a faster social
evolution in the “North”, so that later collectivist systems
arrived first in “North-East”, and "capitalist" system
arrived first in “North-West”, and they only would appear in the
South through a Cultural and Technological Diffusion.
we got these results we'll be able to study if an eventual “free
scientific society” can develop first in the South (like a
“Socialism of the XXI Century” from Venezuela) or in the North,
and if an eventual ecological holocaust would begin in the North or
in the South.
In prior works (Nemiche&Pla-Lopez 2000, 2002a), we developed a
model with a duality East-West in Social
Evolution, particularly in the impact of the social repression:
The probability of satisfaction of a subsystem N with a social
behaviour U is given by
where E/E0≤1 measures the ecological destruction, π(U) the technical possibility of satisfaction, ρ(U,N) the derivation of consumption for recycling,
and σ(U,N) the social repression, which
decreases the probability of satisfaction and is given by
Φ(U,N') sts(U',N') IMP(N',N) ,
where Φ(U',N') is the
scope of the social behaviour U' in a subsystem N', given by
where P(U'|N') is the probability of the social behaviour U' in the
P(U'|N')=F(U'|N')/B(N') so that B(N')=∑U"
and S is the
number of active subsystems,
sts(U',N') is the repressive capacity
the behaviour U' in the subsystem N' and IMP(N',N) is the
impact of a subsystem N' on a subsystem N, given by
P(U"|N') imp(U",d(N',N)) ,
where imp(U",d(N',N)) is the impact of a
behaviour U" at a distance d(N',N) between the subsystems N' and N.
Thus, we introduced a feature of western individualism
repression only acts on other subsystems: imp(U,0)=0) and eastern
(the repression is stronger on the own subsystem: imp(U,0) is the
maximum). With this model, we
could simulate a dual social evolution, so that in the East the
evolution arrived to a "collectivist" social systems U=6≡0110, and in
the West it
arrived to a "capitalist" social system, U=7≡0111
(individualism/gregariousness depends on the least significant bit).
Further on, the model could
carry to an ecologic holocaust, to capitalism forever or to a free
scientific society with U=F≡15≡1111 without repressive capacity, and we
could study the features
which favour one or
another end of the social evolution. This model also could explain the
emergence of ephemeral anomalous social systems in situations of crisis,
name Revolt Effect. Later, we introduced a "repressive solidarity", so
that a subsystem increases its repressive capacity when other subsystem
with the same social system-behaviour is repressed, in order to
simulate the consequences of the 11S (Pla-Lopez&Nemiche 2002b).
The duality North-South
Nevertheless, this model did not consider the duality
North-South which also occurs in the real history of the humanity. In
order to introduce it, we work now in a bidimensional space with the
cylindrical topology, resulting of supressing the poles in a spherical
surface. Thus, we will indicate a subsystem by the pair (N,n), where N
will express the "longitude" and n will express the "latitude". In our
simulation, N=0:19 and n=0:9 so that N=0 and N=19 will be contiguous:
the distance between the subsystems (N,n) amb (N',n') will be
Note that d(0,n,19,n)=10-|10-19|=1
(we could also consider N=0:20 so that
N=20 and N=0 were equivalent: d(0,n,20,n)=10-|10-20|=0 ).
parameter "tanatos" variable with
"latitude" n, so that it were lower in the South. This parameter regulates the occurrence of the relief
so that the probability of relief depends on B/tanatos. Thus, the parameter "tanatos" can be related to
the hope of life until a "natural death". Therefore,
the probability of relief will be greater in the South, so that this
relief will tend to occur before the behaviour of the subsystem were
adapted by learning, and we can suppose that the social evolution
through this learning were slower in the South.
first approximation, we will use a linear relation,
which will vary between 10000 and 28000, as it is indicated in Figure
Also, the parameter "progress" regulates the technological progress, so
that the probability of increase of the number of available behaviours
depends on B/progress. In the previous model, tanatos=20000 and
progress=tanatos/2=10000. Now, we will take progress(n)=10000 constant,
so that the relation tanatos/progress will vary with the latitude n,
between 1 and 2.8
the other hand, the parameter "natal", which regulates initialization
as a result of a relief, so that F(U|N,n)=natal(N) afther this relief,
will depend on "longitude" N, so that the
learning of young subsystems were faster in the West.
In a first
which will vary between 50 for N=5 (West) and 250 for N=15 (East), as
it is indicated in Figure 1, b. Note that natal(20)=natal(0)=150 .
Variation of "tanatos" and "natal" as
a function of the "latitude" and the "longitude", respectively.
Simulating the real history
But, although we begin the modelization from the values of
the parameters of the former model, we need perhaps to re-calibrate
parameters in order to get an accurate simulation of the real social
evolution of humanity until the present time, through different phases
and with a different
evolution between both East-West and North-South.
simulation should have to
show a faster social evolution in the North, so that later collectivist
systems arrived first in North-East, and "capitalist" system arrived
first in North-West, while prior social systems remain in the South,
and more complex "northern" social systems only would appear in the
South through a
Cultural and Technological Diffusion which can simulate the colonialism.
We execute the
model with different values of some basic parameters. The most relevant
are Ka, which indicates the adaptability of the produced repression to
the suffered repression ("adaptive pacifism"), Kr, which
indicates the adaptability of the subjective satisfaction to the mean
satisfaction ("resignation") and Ke, which indicates the adaptability
of the recycling to the exhaustion of the environment ("adaptive
ecologism"). These parameters regulate the delay of the adaptation, and
so, in general, a lower value of them indicates a faster adaptation.
Thus, we can analyze the influence of these factors on the social
evolution, and estimate which values can correspond to the humanity on
By changing only
Ka and Kr, and using the same values of the other parameters from the
former model, we can get an early appearance of some behaviours in the
North, with a subsequent extension to the South, as the Figure 2 shows
with the values Ka=10 and Kr=10 (which indicates a fast adaptive
pacifism and resignation). Each sign correspond to a subsystem, with
North up, South down, West at mid left and East at mid rigth, as usual
(remember that the left limit n=0 and the right limit n=19 are
contiguous). A number (in hexadecimal: F≡15) indicates a predominant behaviour. An hyfen "-"
indicated that there is not any predominant behaviour. A white space
indicates a destroyed subsystem.
We can interpret
the social behaviour of "Slavery", U=3≡0011 as "Western Feudalism" and U=7≡0111 as "Capitalism".
So, we observe that "Western Feudalism" appears first at North-West and
later spread everywhere. Also, "Capitalism" appears first at North and
later spread everywhere.
changing only the parameters Ka and Kr, we cannot simulate the
appearance of gregarious social behaviours, as "Eastern Feudalism" U=2≡0010 or "State Socialism" U=6≡0010, at North-East. So, we need to re-calibrate
other parameters in order to simulate the real history of the humanity
on the Earth.
33- - 11-1 -1 11 1
--333 111 1111 011-1
--33-3111 1 101---
1 3 1-111 1- -1 -
111111 11-1111 01 11
- 1111 1 -11 -11 -
11 11111 1-1 1 11 11
1---111111 1 1-11--
3-3-11111 1 1-- 11
---- ---3-- --------
3 -333333 3333--- -
--3-33-333-33 - - --
3--3-33 33--3- --- -
---- 77---- ------7-
- 73----- ------- -
---7-3-333--- - ----
----7-- 3----- --- -
7777 777777 -7------
7777777 777777- 77
7777777 7777-- 777 7
Four steps in a simulation with
Ka=10, Kr=10, Ke= 8, Ce= 4 and Qc=52
When we got this simulation, we'll be able to
conditions and the possibilities of later local emergency of ways to a
scientific society F≡15≡1111 in front of
"capitalism forever" or ecologic holocaust, and if this alternative
social system can develop
first in the South or in the North. Also, in the case of the end of the
social evolution were an ecological holocaust, we'd be able of
forecast if this would begin in the North or in the South. Thus, we'll
be able to evaluate, for example, if the bolivarian project of the
Socialism of the XXI Century from Venezuela, as different from the
State Socialism of the XX Century, is an anomalous, local and
ephemeral Revolt Effect, or it can be a feasible project with global
Forecasting the futur
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