Rafael Domenech and Angel Melguizo
In this
paper we suggest a set of indicators about the future
performance of the Spanish public pension system and a
suitable method of representing their uncertainty, in order to
improve the communication to the public opinion about its main
future challenges. Spain seems a particularly interesting case
in Europe to illustrate our proposals, since the social
security system has been in surplus for nine consecutive years,
in sharp contrast to the projections made just a decade ago,
but, at the same time, most projections foresee for Spain one
of the highest increases in public expenditure among EU
countries due to ageing. We argue that simple, transparent,
credible, public and periodic indicators, which take
explicitly into account the uncertainty about future
demographic, economic and institutional developments, may
contribute to improve the debate on the policies needed to
strengthen the pension system.
[PDF document] [Non-technical
summary (in Spanish)]
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