According to an estimation of the professor of the Faculty of Economics, Francisco Morillas, the peak with the greatest number of patients infected with Covid-19 will be reached in Spain between 9 and 10 April and a significantly low infection rate will not be reached until the beginning of June.

Francisco Morillas' chart has used different figures to estimate the severity of the expansion of the illness, day by day; also to know when the peak of the curve will take place. This chart estimates the evolution of deaths, the severity of the illness through "geometric growth rates" and at last, it estimates the day on which the peak will take place.

Then is when the analysis estimates the peak of the curve will be reached between 9 and 10 April. No less important is how the descent after the peak will be, and it is important that it is as fast as possible, for society can return to normal. In this sense, estimations indicate that at the beginning of June, the severity of the illness will be very low, leaving the value of it under consideration of the health authorities.

This kind of studies that are being carried out try to advance some of the negative effects that this pandemic already generates. Thus, human and material resources can be managed in the most effective way; or the duration of the crisis can be anticipated in order to estimate the amount of the economic debt.

This study is based on non-parametric methods of time series together with analysis carried out by means of the SIR model and the modelling via GLM (by Autonomous Communities). The complete methodology of these forecasts can be consulted in the webpage https://covid19spain.herokuapp.com/.

On 23 March, Francisco Morillas has been publishing charts according to the data and models used. Previous charts from that day can be consulted in the following link: https://bit.ly/3afnvhv.