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Valencia International Meetings on Bayesian Statistics

Bayesian Statistics, a definition

Statistics is primarily concerned with the analysis of data, either to assist in the appreciation of some underlying mechanism, or to reach effective decisions. In both cases, some uncertainty resides in the situation and the statistician's tasks are both to reduce this uncertainty and to explain it clearly. Problems of this type occur throughout all the physical, social and other sciences. One way of looking at statistics stems from the appreciation that all uncertainty must be described by probability: that probability is the only sensible language for a logic that deals with all degrees of uncertainty, and not just with the extremes of truth and falsity. This is called Bayesian Statistics. Decision-making is embraced by introducing a utility function, itself probability-based, and then maximizing expected utility. Bayesian statistics is designed to handle all situations where uncertainty is found. Since some uncertainty is present in most aspects of life, it is held that Bayesian statistics should be appreciated and used by everyone. It is the logic of contemporary society. It is 'common sense reduced to calculation.'

For an elementary, college level, introduction to Bayesian Statistics, see, for example, Bernardo (2003) Bayesian Statistics, an article written for the UNESCO Encyclopedia of Life Support Systems (EOLSS).

The Valencia Meetings

Every four years since 1979, the University of Valencia, Spain, has sponsored meetings devoted to Bayesian Statistics, the Valencia International Meetings on Bayesian Statistics. The published proceedings are listed below. The tremendous number of citations generated by them underscores their scientific relevance. The numbers attending have dramatically increased and include not only specialist statisticians but also others whose work has uncertainty as an important ingredient.

1. J. M. Bernardo, M. H. DeGroot, D. V. Lindley and A. F. M. Smith (eds). (1980).
   Bayesian Statistics. Valencia: University Press.
   Full text available at (better quality, not searchable) Valencia1.pdf or (lesser quality, searchable) Valencia1.pdf
2. J. M. Bernardo, M. H. DeGroot, D. V. Lindley and A. F. M. Smith (eds). (1985). Bayesian Statistics 2. Amsterdam: North-Holland.
   Full text available at Valencia2.pdf
3. J. M. Bernardo, M. H. DeGroot, D. V. Lindley and A. F. M. Smith (eds).(1988).
   Bayesian Statistics 3. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
4. J. M. Bernardo, J. O. Berger, A. P. Dawid and A. F. M. Smith (eds). (1992).
   Bayesian Statistics 4. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
5. J. M. Bernardo, J. O. Berger, A. P. Dawid and A. F. M. Smith (eds). (1996).
   Bayesian Statistics 5. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
6. J. M. Bernardo, J. O. Berger, A. P. Dawid and A. F. M. Smith (eds). (1999).
   Bayesian Statistics 6. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
   Contents available at Valencia6Contents.pdf
7. J. M. Bernardo, M. J. Bayarri, J. O. Berger, A. P. Dawid, D. Heckerman, A. F. M. Smith and M. West (eds). (2003).
   Bayesian Statistics 7. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
   Preface and contents available at Valencia7Contents.pdf
8. J. M. Bernardo, M. J. Bayarri, J. O. Berger, A. P. Dawid, D. Heckerman, A. F. M. Smith and M. West (eds). (2007).
   Bayesian Statistics 8. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
   Preface and contents available at Valencia8Contents.pdf

For details on the origin and development of the Valencia International Meetings on Bayesian Statistics, click The Valencia Meetings.pdf
The Valencia Meetings are Equal Opportunity / Affirmative Action Conferences.

Co-sponsored by the Universitat de València (UV) and by the International Society for Bayesian Analysis (ISBA), the 9th Valencia International Meeting on Bayesian Statistics and the 2010 World Meeting of the International Society for Bayesian Analysis will jointly be held in Benidorm (Alicante, Spain) from June 3rd to June 8th, 2010. The language of the conference will be English.

Local Organizer

• José M. Bernardo (Universitat de València, Spain) jose.m.bernardo@uv.es

Programme Committee

• Susie Bayarri (Universitat de València, Spain) [susie.bayarri at uv.es]
• James O. Berger (Duke University, USA) [berger at stat.duke.edu]
• José M. Bernardo (Universitat de València, Spain) [jose.m.bernardo at uv.es]
• A. Philip Dawid (University of Cambridge, UK) [a.p.dawid at statslab.cam.ac.uk]
• David Heckerman (Microsoft Research, USA) [heckerma at microsoft.com]
• Adrian F. M. Smith (Director General for Science and Research, UK) [afmsmith at gmail.com]
• Mike West (Duke University, USA) [mw at stat.duke.edu]

Venue

Delegates are expected to arrive by Thursday June 3rd (the opening Valencia lecture will be early in the morning of June 4th, contributed talks start in the late afternoon of June 3rd) and depart on the morning of Wednesday, June 9th (the gala dinner will be on the evening of June 8th).

ISBA organizes a set of tutorials on Bayesian Statistics on Thursday, June 3rd. Thus, delegates who wish to attend the tutorials are expected to arrive one day earlier, by Wednesday June 2nd.

As in previous occasions, this will be a residential conference in a coastal resort. On this occasion, as in Valencia 8, the venue is Gran Hotel Bali (see picture below), a four star hotel with an appropriate purpose built large auditorium. The hotel is located at the southern end of Benidorm (50 km north from Alicante and 140 km south from Valencia).

The closest airport is Alicante (ALC), well connected to Madrid, Barcelona and many European cities, by both conventional and low-cost airlines. Given the conference dates, early flight bookings are very strongly recommended.

Possible alternatives include flying to either Valencia (VLC) or Madrid (MAD). Madrid and Alicante are connected by several flights a day. Fast trains connect Valencia and Alicante (two hours) and Madrid and Alicante (four hours) several times a day.

A free shuttle bus service organized by the conference will be operating between Alicante airport and Hotel Bali Benidorm on both June 2nd and June 3rd, running roughly every two hours and covering all arriving flights, whatever their landing time.

Conference Programme

As in previous editions, the conference will be preceded by a set of tutorials, which is beeing organized by ISBA, and will be delivered on Thursday, June 3rd.

The Valencia 9 invited programme includes 25 talks of 30 minutes each, whose presentation will be followed a by 10 minutes invited discussion, and some discussion from the floor. These talks will be delivered in plenary sessions in the mornings.

• Abrams, Keith (University of Leicester, UK)
• Bernardo, José M. (Universitat de València, Spain)
• Carvalho, Carlos (University of Chicago, USA)
• Chopin, Nick (ENSAE, France)
• Consonni, Guido (Università di Pavia, Italy)
• Dunson, David (Duke University, USA)
• Fruehwirth-Schnatter, Sylvia (Johannes Kepler Universität Linz, Austria)
• Goldstein, Michael (University of Durham, UK)
• Huber, Mark (Claremont McKenna College, USA)
• Ickstadt, Katjia (Technische Universität Dortmund, Germany)
• Lee, Herbie (University of California, Santa Cruz, USA)
• Lopes, Hedibert (University of Chicago, USA)
• Loredo, Tom (University of Cornell, USA)
• Louis, Tom (Johns Hopkins University, USA)
• Madigan, David (Columbia University, USA)
• McCallum, Andrew (University of Massachusetts, USA)
• Meek, Christopher (Microsoft Research, USA)
• Meng, Xiao-Li (Harvard University, USA)
• Polson, Nick (University of Chicago, USA)
• Richardson, Sylvia (Imperial College London, UK)
• Richardson, Thomas (University of Washington, USA)
• Schmidt, Alexandra (Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Brazil)
• Tebaldi, Claudia (Climate Central, USA)
• Vannucci, Marina (Rice University, USA)
• Wilkinson, Darren (University of Newcastle, UK)

A separate programme of selected oral contributions is being organized by ISBA. This will be take place in plenary sessions in the afternoons, starting on June 3. The ISBA program committee is currently reviewing submissions, and decisions are expected to be made by the end of January.

Call for papers

Contributed papers will be presented in poster form in the plenary evening sessions which have become an identity sign of the Valencia meetings. There will be five poster sessions, every evening from June 3rd through June 7th. These are also organized by ISBA.

if published, they are eligible for the Lindley Prize. For further information on the ISBA part of the programme, see ISBA2010.

Only one presentation (whether oral or poster) per person will be allowed, and any presenter (whether speaker or poster) must be a registered participant. Coauthoring meeting both restrictions will, of course, be possible.

Registration

Registration is now open. The 485 Eur registration fee (115 Eur for accompanying persons not attending the conference) is designed to cover all expenses required for the running of the meeting (transportation; facilities, equipment and human hiring; coffee breaks, etc) and also the conference banquet. A limited number or rooms have been reserved at the Hotel Bali at very special prices (59/99 Eur per day sharing/single, including breakfast and dinner with wine). These will allocated on a first come, first served basis. Registration fees may be paid electronically (preferred method), by cheque, or by bank transfer. Full reimbursement of accommodation will be granted if cancelled before May 25th. Conference fees will always be reimbursed to those unable to attend at the last moment. Bringing children under three years old will have no cost.

Registration instructions

Registration is done by using the registration form provided below. When filling the electronic form, please use clicks to insert values, and to move around the form. If you hit the return key before completion, the form will be prematurely sent, and will not get trough. If this happens, start again.

Make sure that the correct quantities appear at the boxes on the right, which they should automatically add to provide the correct grand total (boxes get updated when clicked). When you see that this is correct, mark the button which corresponds to your preferred method of payment (credit card, check or bank transfer). Then click "Print" at the bottom to save a copy for your records, and finally click "Send".

The new security measures set up by Visa/Master Card to try to curtail electronic abuse sometimes leads to incorrect blocking of payments to an organization unknown to them, without informing the bank --- similar to issues with some anti-spam programs discarding bona fide emails. Apparently, this will not happen it your credit card is charged directly from Valencia. Thus, if your payment does not go through at the web site, and you still prefer to use of a credit card, please verify that the printed form has your credit card number and expiration date, then sign and send the form -- either mail it, or fax it, or scan and email it -- to the Valencia committee, to the attention of Lizbeth Roman who oversees the registration process:

• Fax: +34 96 364 3560 (atn. Lizbeth Román)
• email: lizbeth.roman@uv.es
• mail: Lizbeth Román, Valencia 9, Dept. Estadística, Fac. Matemáticas, 46100-Burjassot, Valencia, Spain

To access the registration form, click this link: Registration Form

Valencia Mailing List

If you may be interested in attending Valencia 9, or if you just want to be included in the conference mailing list, please click this button
[Valencia Mailing List]

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This web page, http://www.uv.es/valenciameeting
will be periodically updated as the organization of the Meeting progresses.

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José M. Bernardo Home page

Bayesian Mailing List

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Valencia International Meetings on Bayesian Statistics.
Departamento de Estadística e I.O., Facultad de Matemáticas,
Universitat de València, 46100-Burjassot, Valencia, Spain.