The Valenciaport Chair of Port Economics—of the Universitat de València and the Port Authority of València—submits the 1st Quarterly Report on the International Economic Situation prepared by Dr. Vicente J. Pallardó.

The report shows that the evolution of the international economy is quite uneven but, broadly speaking, the situation remains highly complex and the risks for the immediate future are clearly skewed to the downside. At the same time, the data show that expected economic growth has failed to meet the pre-pandemic expectations. “In the West, most economies (but not southern Europe or Japan) will have already exceeded by the end of this year, albeit by a narrow margin, the level of activity they showed before COVID-19”, explains Vicente J. Pallardó. “But, generally, they will also have lost five points or more of growth compared to what was expected before the pandemic”, adds the director of the Valenciaport Chair of Port Economics.

“Spain, with a loss of 7 points of GDP compared to what was anticipated at the end of 2019, is among the countries with the worst results”, points out Professor Pallardó. “The exception is the United States, whose economy would have grown more with the pandemic than without it. The explanation is given by the enormous magnitude of the fiscal and monetary injections”, argues the Tenured University Professor from the Department of Economic Structure at the Universitat de València. 

This first report analyses, in 7 key points, the current international economic situation and outlines the trends for the immediate future. Inflation, monetary policies, the rise in housing prices, the fall in the price of public debt, the household savings rate, the labour market and the sustainability of globalisation are the main factors addressed in this study.

This work by Professor Pallardó marks the beginning of the “Quarterly Reports on the international economic situation” prepared by the Valenciaport Chair of Port Economics. “The aim is to provide the reader with data, ideas and perspectives that contribute to a better understanding of the current economic reality. We hope that this analysis exercise will become a reference for the monitoring of international economic events”, the author points out.

The quarterly reports will follow the same structure. First, the “Spotlight”, a chart analysing some of the latest elements of the period under review, will be presented. This will be followed by recent changes in the "International Reference Prices", those prices that set the standard for the performance of the world economy. The main focus of the reports will be on the section “Understanding the Quarter in Seven Keys”, which will address the key issues that are crucial for understanding developments in the recent period and future developments in the international economy. Finally, the dossier will close with the section “The World in Two Variables”, which will show the trajectory during the 21st century of two transcendental macroeconomic indicators for the world economy as a whole and the differences observed between developed, emerging and developing countries.

The Valenciaport Chair of Port Economics is a project born in 2022, result of the collaboration between the Port Authority of València and the Universitat de València, which aims to bring knowledge of the changing international economic and trade situation, and especially maritime traffic and port activity, closer to professionals, the media, academics, students and, in short, the whole of society interested in this changing reality. The quarterly reports on the international economic situation are part of the research activities related to the analysis and regular monitoring of the international economic situation, trade and its maritime-port implications.

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