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International economic situation report. April 2023

  • Authors: Pallardó López, Vicente J.
  • Place, Editorial, Year: Valencia, APV - UV Valenciaport Chair of Port Economics , 2023.
  • Publication types: Informes
  • URL Publication: International economic situation report. April 2023
  • Abstract:

    The (unexpected?) financial instability that unfolded a few weeks ago was the latest element hindering everyone, and particularly the central banks, in their assessment of the economic situation in the West and, with it, the following decisions to be made. The persistence (and even recent rise) in core inflation, the strength of the labour market, the upward course of wages and corporate profits, the fear of repeating the mistakes of the last century's 70s, or the cuts in oil production by OPEC+ are factors that would demand the cycle of monetary tightening to continue for a while, along with the recovery of some fiscal discipline, also given the levels of accumulated public debt. On the other hand, just the opposite would be called for by subdued economic growth, the loss of purchasing power due to two years of (very) excessive inflation, the perception that rate hikes are beginning to have an effect in certain areas, such as real estate, or the risk of a severe credit squeeze given the instability of the situation and the recent difficulties of part of the banking system on both sides of the Atlantic. This debate will be covered extensively throughout the sections of this second 2023's Quarterly Report.