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Quarterly Economic Reports

 
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    International economic situation report. April 2023

    Pallardó López, Vicente J.

    Valencia: APV - UV Valenciaport Chair of Port Economics , 2023. Informes

    The (unexpected?) financial instability that unfolded a few weeks ago was the latest element hindering everyone, and particularly the central banks, in their assessment of the economic situation in the West and, with it, the following decisions to be made. The persistence (and even recent rise) in core inflation, the strength of the labour market, the upward course of wages and corporate profits, the fear of repeating the mistakes of the last century's 70s, or the cuts in oil production by OPEC+ are factors that would demand the cycle of monetary tightening to continue for a while, along with the recovery of some fiscal discipline, also given the levels of accumulated public debt. On the...

    The (unexpected?) financial instability that unfolded a few weeks ago was the latest element hindering everyone, and particularly the central banks, in their assessment of the economic situation in the West and, with it, the following decisions to be made. The persistence (and even recent rise) in core inflation, the strength of the labour market, the upward course of wages and corporate profits, the fear of repeating the mistakes of the last century's 70s, or the cuts in oil production by OPEC+ are factors that would demand the cycle of monetary tightening to continue for a while, along with the recovery of some fiscal discipline, also given the levels of accumulated public debt. On the other hand, just the opposite would be called for by subdued economic growth, the loss of purchasing power due to two years of (very) excessive inflation, the perception that rate hikes are beginning to have an effect in certain areas, such as real estate, or the risk of a severe credit squeeze given the instability of the situation and the recent difficulties of part of the banking system on both sides of the Atlantic. This debate will be covered extensively throughout the sections of this second 2023's Quarterly Report.

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    International economic situation report. January 2023

    Pallardó López, Vicente J.

    Valencia: APV - UV Valenciaport Chair of Port Economics , 2023. Informes

    The year 2022 has come to an end, a year in which the war in Ukraine and its implications for the energy and food commodity markets, the Chinese government's "COVID-zero" policy or an unprecedented inflation in almost half a century in the developed countries, which provoked the energetic (and very late) response of these countries’ Central Banks, substantially complicated the macroeconomic scenario forecast, both in the West and in the rest of the world. The year 2023 is not looking any better, with the word "recession" for many economies and even in global terms, in the analyses of most analysts and major international economic institutions.

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    International economic situation report. October 2022

    Pallardó López, Vicente J.

    Valencia: APV - UV Valenciaport Chair of Port Economics , 2022. Informes

    Last July, the significant complexity of the current global economic outlook was emphasised in the first of our Quarterly Reports on the international economic situation. One quarter later, as expected, the scene has not been cleared up, neither in strictly economic terms nor regarding the geopolitical situation in which it is involved.

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    International economic situation report. July 2022

    Pallardó López, Vicente J.

    Valencia: Valenciaport Port Economy Chair APV - UV , 2022. Informes

    Our Quarterly Reports on the international economic situation begin at a rather challenging time. The heritage of the imbalances introduced into the global economic system derived by the COVID-19 pandemic, a highly adverse geopolitical situation and the ultra-expansionary (probably too-expansionary) macroeconomic policy response to the last two recessions place the international economy, and especially the West, in a series of serious difficulties. Inflation rates unprecedented in almost half a century, continued disruptions in global value chains, the need to reverse (but not too much, in intensity and temporality, to avoid a significant recession) current monetary and fiscal policies, and...

    Our Quarterly Reports on the international economic situation begin at a rather challenging time. The heritage of the imbalances introduced into the global economic system derived by the COVID-19 pandemic, a highly adverse geopolitical situation and the ultra-expansionary (probably too-expansionary) macroeconomic policy response to the last two recessions place the international economy, and especially the West, in a series of serious difficulties. Inflation rates unprecedented in almost half a century, continued disruptions in global value chains, the need to reverse (but not too much, in intensity and temporality, to avoid a significant recession) current monetary and fiscal policies, and the dilemma of whether (and how) globalisation should be reconsidered, not only for reasons of efficiency (not in terms of cost, but of greater security of supply, at least of certain strategic goods - and raw materials) but also for geopolitical reasons.

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