This Thursday, 6 November, at 4:00 p.m., we will hold a meteorology seminar for the Master's Degree in Meteorology and Geophysics. It will take place in the Sala de Grados (1st floor) and will last approximately one hour.

On this occasion, we have two speakers: Bernat Jiménez, postdoctoral researcher at the Institute of Geosciences (CSIC-UCM) and associate professor at the University of Barcelona, and Carlos Calvo-Sancho, postdoctoral researcher at the Centre for Research on Desertification (CIDE). The title of the seminar is: ‘Extreme rainfall in Valencia during the DANA of October 2024: Did climate change have an influence?’

Summary:

Between late October and early November 2024, an isolated upper-level trough (DANA) caused exceptional rainfall in several areas of the Iberian Peninsula, especially in the province of Valencia. Locally, up to 771 mm of rain fell in 15 hours, breaking numerous rainfall records. In addition, 11 tornadoes developed and hailstones up to 5 cm in diameter were observed. The rains caused catastrophic flooding, with more than 200 fatalities and serious socioeconomic damage. Given a weather event with such serious impacts, the question arises as to whether climate change had any influence and, if so, what that influence was. This seminar reviews the synoptic and mesoscale situation that occurred in the DANA at the end of October 2024 and presents the results of two attribution studies based on the storylines methodology. The DANA is simulated in a factual world (current conditions) and in a counterfactual world (pre-industrial conditions). In one study, very high-resolution numerical simulations are used to resolve most mesoscale and microscale processes. In the other study, an alternative is explored using artificial intelligence-based weather prediction models, which substantially reduce computational costs and offer opportunities for operational application.

The seminar can also be followed online at: https://meet.google.com/ome-bwwy-avf

CIDE Communication